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《十年利率心法》的逻辑框架

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资产周期轮动的底层逻辑——?#29992;?#26519;时钟到货币信用

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《十年利率心法》可以分为三大部分,六大章节,章节逻辑上有着完整而严谨的体系设计,层层递进,环环相扣,相信完整学习的你能够体会其中深意。

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利率体系是基础,资产配置是实践,利率周期的起伏是驱动大类资产轮动的核?#37027;?#21160;力,?#21069;?#25569;不同周期下投资机遇的密码。

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《十年利率体系》的上半部分着眼于中国利率体系的基础知识,通过详?#20184;?#23436;整的介绍,旨在帮助投资者建立一套利率的综合分析框架

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《十年利率体系》的下半部分则着眼于资产轮动和资产配置,如果说利率体系理论基础,那么资产配置就是投资实践

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如何把握不同周期下的最优投资配置机会,提高资产配置的收益和效率,相信是每一位市场投资人最为关心的核心议题!

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作为 2019 年 A 股市场上的领涨版块,计算机行业的底气何来?

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作为?#20381;?#26368;多热点、风口的“网红”版块,计算机行业中的真龙头是谁?

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一?#24065;?#26469;,计算机版块充满新技术、新主题、新模式,被市场认为是最容易被股民跟风,被机构集中持有,妖股和牛股共盘踞的版块。因此,读懂计算机版块也是投资者最希望驾驭的硬核技能。

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?

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本期大师课《计算机硬?#36865;?#36164;》,将会带你?#40644;?strong>梳理计算机行业底层逻辑,盘点“下一个科技真龙头”。

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主讲人:胡又文 【安信证券研究所所长,计算机行业首席分析师】

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?

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三大核?#21215;?#20540;:

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?

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\"image\"/\"image\"/

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\"image\"/

\n","summary_rich_text":"

作为 2019 年 A 股市场上的领涨版块,计算机行业的底气何来?

作为?#20381;?#26368;多热点、风口的“网红”版块,计算机行业中的真龙头是谁?

一?#24065;?#26469;,计算机版块充满新技术、新主题、新模式,被市场认为是最容易被股民跟风,被机构集中持有,妖股和牛股共盘踞的版块。因此,读懂计算机版块也是投资者最希望驾驭的硬核技能。

?

本期大师课《计算机硬?#36865;?#36164;》,将会带你?#40644;?strong>梳理计算机行业底层逻辑,盘点“下一个科技真龙头”。

主讲人:胡又文 【安信证券研究所所长,计算机行业首席分析师】

?

三大核?#21215;?#20540;:

?

","title":"计算机硬?#36865;?#36164;·胡又文 | 大师课","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/topics/1003044"},"resource_type":"topic"},{"resource":{"author":{"author_short_intro":"中信建投研究所所长、TMT行业首席分析师","display_name":"武超则","id":120000003956},"content_count":0,"id":1002840,"image":{"horizontal_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/5c40f2fe-6783-4509-8b96-9dfc06d83555.jpg","vertical_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/f953864d-fa8f-4bbd-8b06-3995c2767b00.jpg"},"is_audio":false,"is_internal":false,"is_text":true,"is_video":true,"latest_article":{"content_short":"武超则大师课:5G投资图谱","id":3505113,"title":"通信一姐武超则:华为中?#33487;?#20840;球通信主设备商半壁江山,上游供应链应如何布局?#20426;?#25237;资大学·大师课第九讲】","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/articles/3505113?layout=wscn-layout"},"most_recent_content_time":1555422444,"product":{"bought_count":1256,"discount_copywriting":"原价297元","discount_text":"原价297元","end_time_timestamp":0,"id":12452,"is_can_renewal":true,"is_multi_products":true,"is_paid":false,"min_product_price":15900,"name":"5G投资图谱·武超则 | 大师课","origin_price":16000,"period":-1,"price":16000,"spu_id":13487,"weekly_bought_count":19},"sub_title":"解析通信产业链,挖掘创新硬科技","summary":"

课程更新完毕,8折优惠最后一天

\n\n

这是一堂掘金5G通信产业的大师课——5G投资图谱。

\n\n

纵观每一?#20013;?#24687;通信的升级革命,?#23478;?#39046;了科技的浪潮和产业的巨变。5G网络作为新一代科技基础设施,各国?#36861;?#25237;入巨资,一场全球强国的高科技赛跑已经拉开帷幕。

\n\n

5G时代也必将催生一大批“淘金者?#20445;?#36816;营商、设备商、器件商、终端应用?#36861;?#20934;备登台,产业链风起云涌的背后也?#28393;?#30528;巨大投资机遇。随着频谱的落地,加速5G商用化,重塑传统产业发展模式,将成为我国数字经济发展的新动能。

\n\n

?

\n\n

大师课主讲人?#20309;?#36229;则

\n\n

中信建投研究所所长、TMT行业首席分析师。

\n\n

武超则长期专注于移动互联网、物联网、云计算等通信服务领域的研究,对TMT行业有着独到而敏锐的挖掘力和判断力。2013-2017年连续五年获得新财富通信行业最佳分析师评选第一名。2018年IAMAC最受?#38431;?#21334;方分析师通信行业第一名,2018《水晶球》最佳分析师通信行业第一名。

\n\n

2019年,正值5G商用的元年,伴随着5G临时?#26222;?#21457;?#29275;?#19975;亿级的投资启动在即,5G行业的投资逻辑也将从主题投资迈向业绩兑现!从政策驱动迈向业务驱动、商业驱动!

\n\n

在5G投资商用的进程中,哪些领域有望最大受益?投资者应关注哪些重要时间节点?产业链哪些细分领域有望突围?应用终端领域谁将率先爆发?通信行业何时迎来业绩拐点?

\n\n

武超则将在5G投资图谱的大师课中为您一一解惑,从产业的视?#21069;?#25569;投资,从时间的节点预判未来,让我们?#40644;?#21551;航。

\n\n

如何学习

\n\n\n\n

\"image\"/

\n","summary_rich_text":"

课程更新完毕,8折优惠最后一天

这是一堂掘金5G通信产业的大师课——5G投资图谱。

纵观每一?#20013;?#24687;通信的升级革命,?#23478;?#39046;了科技的浪潮和产业的巨变。5G网络作为新一代科技基础设施,各国?#36861;?#25237;入巨资,一场全球强国的高科技赛跑已经拉开帷幕。

5G时代也必将催生一大批“淘金者?#20445;?#36816;营商、设备商、器件商、终端应用?#36861;?#20934;备登台,产业链风起云涌的背后也?#28393;?#30528;巨大投资机遇。随着频谱的落地,加速5G商用化,重塑传统产业发展模式,将成为我国数字经济发展的新动能。

?

大师课主讲人?#20309;?#36229;则

中信建投研究所所长、TMT行业首席分析师。

武超则长期专注于移动互联网、物联网、云计算等通信服务领域的研究,对TMT行业有着独到而敏锐的挖掘力和判断力。2013-2017年连续五年获得新财富通信行业最佳分析师评选第一名。2018年IAMAC最受?#38431;?#21334;方分析师通信行业第一名,2018《水晶球》最佳分析师通信行业第一名。

2019年,正值5G商用的元年,伴随着5G临时?#26222;?#21457;?#29275;?#19975;亿级的投资启动在即,5G行业的投资逻辑也将从主题投资迈向业绩兑现!从政策驱动迈向业务驱动、商业驱动!

在5G投资商用的进程中,哪些领域有望最大受益?投资者应关注哪些重要时间节点?产业链哪些细分领域有望突围?应用终端领域谁将率先爆发?通信行业何时迎来业绩拐点?

武超则将在5G投资图谱的大师课中为您一一解惑,从产业的视?#21069;?#25569;投资,从时间的节点预判未来,让我们?#40644;?#21551;航。

如何学习

","title":"5G投资图谱·武超则 | 大师课","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/topics/1002840"},"resource_type":"topic"},{"resource":{"author":{"author_short_intro":"全球排名第二的开源量化交易平台vn.py 创始人","display_name":"陈晓优","id":120000003908},"content_count":0,"id":1002478,"image":{"horizontal_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/67c03665-ffbd-43f7-bf06-7c7f1b97c449.jpg","vertical_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/6c89e419-95e0-4c0d-bf50-b7f3edc88500.jpg"},"is_audio":false,"is_internal":false,"is_text":true,"is_video":true,"latest_article":{"content_short":"这一集里面我们就要来接触在海龟策略回测里面非常重要的一个用来统计盈亏的方法——逐日盯市统计。","id":3516504,"title":"19 逐日盯市的盈亏统计DailyResult","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/articles/3516504?layout=wscn-layout"},"most_recent_content_time":1556031051,"product":{"bought_count":804,"discount_copywriting":"","discount_text":"","end_time_timestamp":0,"id":11236,"is_can_renewal":true,"is_multi_products":false,"is_paid":false,"min_product_price":15900,"name":"30堂实战?#38395;?#36890;量化交易","origin_price":15900,"period":-1,"price":15900,"spu_id":10896,"weekly_bought_count":11},"sub_title":"小白学量化从0-1直达中级","summary":"

?#31350;?#31243;为《Quant 全实战进阶课》第一阶

\n\n

?#31350;?#31243;加磅福利】
\n为了紧追市场热点,特在第一?#33258;?#21152;了8节关于股指期货的量化实盘快速小课,给予想要快速上手,尽早抓住未来可能机会的学员

\n\n

学习目标

\n\n\n\n

?
\n**
\n好消息!
\n**

\n\n

?

\n\n

购买?#31350;?#31243;,即
\n赠送学前小课
\n《投资场景下的Python入门15课》,让你们学到最硬核的,先跑起来!

\n\n

?

\n\n

(订阅后,工作人员将会在1~3个工作日内为您免费开通学前小课,赠阅?#34892;?#26399;为期一年,请在“app-我的-付?#35759;?#38405;-订阅列表”进行查看)

\n\n\n\n

?

\n\n

\"image\"/

\n\n

\"image\"/

\n\n

\"image\"/

\n\n

\"image\"/

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请在购买专辑后认真收听【入学准备】& 【入学测试】,根据提示操作,并定位自己的起步点

\n\n
\n\n

期待你有更多收获!

\n\n

?

\n","summary_rich_text":"

?#31350;?#31243;为《Quant 全实战进阶课》第一阶

?#31350;?#31243;加磅福利】为了紧追市场热点,特在第一?#33258;?#21152;了8节关于股指期货的量化实盘快速小课,给予想要快速上手,尽早抓住未来可能机会的学员

学习目标

?

好消息!

?

购买?#31350;?#31243;,即赠送学前小课《投资场景下的Python入门15课》,让你们学到最硬核的,先跑起来!

?

(订阅后,工作人员将会在1~3个工作日内为您免费开通学前小课,赠阅?#34892;?#26399;为期一年,请在“app-我的-付?#35759;?#38405;-订阅列表”进行查看)

* 有任何课程相关疑问可以咨询助教小姐姐微信号:jwzhujiao2

?

请在购买专辑后认真收听【入学准备】& 【入学测试】,根据提示操作,并定位自己的起步点

?

期待你有更多收获!

?

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市场对货币政策的预期突然反转:3月底4月初市场普遍预期央行会加码货币宽松,而4月中旬之后,预期央行会紧货币的声音急剧加强。

\n

反转的背后是种?#36136;录?#20449;号:社融拐点、经济拐点、通?#20984;?#28857;接踵而至,宏观经济杠杆率“一夜回到解放前?#20445;琈LF缩量、?#24213;?#38477;息落空,各种会议要求保持定力,市场情绪大反转,预期央行会紧货币。

\n

而在疑虑情绪下,刚刚,中国央行进行2674亿元TMLF操作,为创设该工具以来第二次实施操作;操作利率3.15%,与上次操作?#21046;剑越螹LF利率优惠15个基点,这是4月中旬以来,罕见的货币政策维稳信号。

\n

除此之外 ,人们还在等待周四央行的吹风会,期望能得到更?#29992;?#30830;的指引。

\n

货币政策真的像市场预期那样,像电风扇那样快速转动吗?货币政策V型紧缩的可能性有多少?

\n

*本文内容由见闻研究团队原创,会员可以添加微信号“jwzhujiao7”加入会员投研交流群,和研究团队?#40644;?#21457;掘全球市场机会*

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从今天开始,从中国观众开始,全世界将陆续知道《复联4》究?#29399;?#29983;了什么。

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根据猫眼票房数据显示,截至4月23日上午10点,也就是距离全球首映还有13个小时,《复仇者联盟4》的国内预售总票?#31185;?亿,创下中国影史纪录。上?#22478;?小时,预售票房直接破7亿。

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你如何?#21019;?#22797;联4》火遍全球的现象?漫威里哪个人物是你的最爱?

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周二,标普纳指齐创?#24352;?#21382;史新高。

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标普500指数收涨25.71点,涨幅0.88%,报2933.68点。道指收涨145.34点,涨幅0.55%,报26656.39点。纳指收涨105.56点,涨幅1.32%,报8120.82点。

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本周是美股最繁忙的一季度?#31080;?#21608;,将有140家标普500企业公布?#31080;ā?#25454;FactSet统计,目前已有超过78%的标普500成分股盈利好于预期。如果美股一季报盈利同比增长、而非此前预期的同比回落,将有助于提振美股走势。

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?

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年初至今上证综指已经站上3200点,涨幅超过25%。截止4月23日,本月北上资金净流出157亿元,创历史第三大月度净流出纪录。

\n

截止4月22日晚,全部基金一季报基本披露完毕。其中,普通和偏股型基金持股仓位高达86.03%,已经是近年以来的新高。陈果认为,从历史经验来看,估算的股票型基金仓位处于绝对高位(90%以上)或绝对低位(70%以下),?#23478;?#21619;着市场出现转折点的概率越来越大。未来减仓可能将大于加仓可能。

\n

其认为此时留存“子弹?#20445;?#20197;退为进或许是更好的一种方式。因为,虽然指数整体性机会可能将告一段落,但是未来结构性机遇依然存在。

\n

你怎么看?

","fixed_participatent_count":0,"id":381,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/067376f6-f173-4684-839b-947c9356130e.jpg","including_vote":true,"interactive_type":"discuss","is_participated":false,"is_voted":false,"latest_participants":["https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ivanka_avatar_11.png","https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/0c1b81b0-1b84-4d6e-8291-6e138b5c419d","https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/6746698c-32c5-43c5-941b-13974fb050c0"],"participatent_count":8338,"play_uris":null,"precedence":0,"publisher":"","related_articles":[],"rumor_status":"false","status":"published","title":"【讨论】基金仓位接近高位临界值,外资?#35759;?#26242;撤离,市场出现转折点了吗?","updated_at":1556026980,"uri":"http://www.3553773.com/discuss/381","video_uri":"","vote":{"end_time":1556553600,"options":[{"id":316,"option":"到了","votes":700,"ratio":40.65040650406504},{"id":317,"option":"还没到","votes":603,"ratio":35.01742160278746},{"id":318,"option":"难以判断","votes":419,"ratio":24.332171893147503}],"start_time":1556120652,"title":"你认为年初这轮“牛?#23567;?#21040;转折点了吗?","type":"single"}}]}},"[\"/earn/impression\",{\"channel\":\"wscn-global-page\",\"category\":\"ownerwscn\",\"andcategory\":\"desktop\",\"sort\":\"-precedence,-created_at\"}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"items":[],"item_count":0,"click_count":0,"impressions_count":0}},"[\"/content/lives\",{\"channel\":\"global-channel\",\"limit\":6,\"first_page\":true,\"score\":\"2,3\"}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"items":[{"article":null,"author":{"id":120000002396,"display_name":"?#27779;?#40511;","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/e3b9c1ac-fa45-4f99-a866-d7a458726dc7","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/120000002396"},"channels":["global-channel","oil-channel"],"content":"

沙特石油部长Falih?#33655;?#29305;将发行更多债券。沙特阿美首次发行的120亿美元债券“只是开始”。
\n阿美资产负债表处于合适的水准。
\n阿美将在债券和债务市场表现活?#23613;?br/>\n将比外界预想的更快进入证券市场。
\n沙特阿美与沙特基础工业公司(SABIC)的交易有望在今年完成。
\n沙特阿美上市将在“我们准备好了”的时候进?#23567;?br/>\n沙特阿美招股?#24471;?#20070;将在不远的未来落地。
\n天?#40644;?#20379;应今年将比原油增长更快。
\n阿美与沙特基础工业公司将目光?#26029;?#20122;洲、中亚和非洲市场。
\n阿美寻求开发俄罗斯和?#22868;?#22320;区的天?#40644;?br/>\n阿美寻求美国的投资。
\n未来10-20年将有数千亿美元资金流入,很大部分是流入能源领域。
\n?#36291;?#28966;全球原油市场的平衡。

\n","content_more":"

4月初,沙特阿美宣布发行国际美元债120亿,认购近10倍。

\n","content_text":"沙特石油部长Falih?#33655;?#29305;将发行更多债券。沙特阿美首次发行的120亿美元债券“只是开始”。\n阿美资产负债表处于合适的水准。\n阿美将在债券和债务市场表现活?#23613;n将比外界预想的更快进入证券市场。\n沙特阿美与沙特基础工业公司(SABIC)的交易有望在今年完成。\n沙特阿美上市将在“我们准备好了”的时候进?#23567;n沙特阿美招股?#24471;?#20070;将在不远的未来落地。\n天?#40644;?#20379;应今年将比原油增长更快。\n阿美与沙特基础工业公司将目光?#26029;?#20122;洲、中亚和非洲市场。\n阿美寻求开发俄罗斯和?#22868;?#22320;区的天?#40644;n阿美寻求美国的投资。\n未来10-20年将有数千亿美元资金流入,很大部分是流入能源领域。\n?#36291;?#28966;全球原油市场的平衡。\n","display_time":1556090573,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.3553773.com/live","id":1499571,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":"","type":"live"},{"article":null,"author":{"id":125723,"display_name":"田晓艳","image":"https://dn-wscn-avatar.qbox.me/85/73/75/qq-20160808131025.jpg","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/125723"},"channels":["global-channel"],"content":"

【上海制订鼓励设立民营企业总部新规,近期将推出】上海市政府已完成制订《上海市鼓励设立民营企业总部的若干意见》,将于近期推出。这项新规将通过多维?#32676;?#37327;民企发展水平,对民企推出更为精?#21152;行?#30340;扶持方式,让政策对象更聚焦,服务机制更便利。有业界人士更建议上海开辟类似外滩、后滩的民营企业总部示范基地,引领全国民营经济创新发展。(21世纪经济报道)

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"【上海制订鼓励设立民营企业总部新规,近期将推出】上海市政府已完成制订《上海市鼓励设立民营企业总部的若干意见》,将于近期推出。这项新规将通过多维?#32676;?#37327;民企发展水平,对民企推出更为精?#21152;行?#30340;扶持方式,让政策对象更聚焦,服务机制更便利。有业界人士更建议上海开辟类似外滩、后滩的民营企业总部示范基地,引领全国民营经济创新发展。(21世纪经济报道)\n","display_time":1556088841,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.3553773.com/live","id":1499531,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":"","type":"live"},{"article":null,"author":{"id":110000000000,"display_name":"finfo数据导入API","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ivanka_avatar_1.png","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/110000000000"},"calendar_key":"3ebcc16886d40932e328913e9fe58816","channels":["global-channel","gold-forex-channel","gold-channel","forex-channel"],"content":"

法国4月INSEE制造业信心指数 101,预期 102,前值由 102 修正为 103。
\n法国4月INSEE商业信心指数 105,预期 104,前值 104。

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"法国4月INSEE制造业信心指数 101,预期 102,前值由 102 修正为 103。\n法国4月INSEE商业信心指数 105,预期 104,前值 104。\n","display_time":1556088300,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.3553773.com/live","id":1499519,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":true,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":"","type":"live","wscn_ticker":"FR152409"},{"article":null,"author":{"id":120000002396,"display_name":"?#27779;?#40511;","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/e3b9c1ac-fa45-4f99-a866-d7a458726dc7","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/120000002396"},"channels":["global-channel","forex-channel"],"content":"

英国宣布启动下一任央行行长筛选程序。
\n英国将在夏季就下一任央行行长人选进行面试。
\n英国希望在秋季提名新的央行行长。
\n英国财长哈蒙德称赞卡尼带领英国经济度过了挑战期。
\n(华尔街见闻注:英国现任央行行长卡尼任期将于2020年1月结束。)

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"英国宣布启动下一任央行行长筛选程序。\n英国将在夏季就下一任央行行长人选进行面试。\n英国希望在秋季提名新的央行行长。\n英国财长哈蒙德称赞卡尼带领英国经济度过了挑战期。\n(华尔街见闻注:英国现任央行行长卡尼任期将于2020年1月结束。)\n","display_time":1556085809,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.3553773.com/live","id":1499486,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":"","type":"live"},{"article":{"id":3516909,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/f6cbb9c5-b15f-4871-b892-66d2adbee4d4.jpg","platforms":["wscn-platform"],"title":"三大指数下探回升 创业板涨逾2% 燃料电池强?#21697;?#25277;","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/articles/3516909"},"author":{"id":120000002396,"display_name":"?#27779;?#40511;","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/e3b9c1ac-fa45-4f99-a866-d7a458726dc7","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/120000002396"},"channels":["global-channel"],"content":"

A股午后?#20013;?#19978;涨,三大指数全部翻红。创业板涨1.7%,深成指涨0.95%,沪指涨0.05%。语音技术、数字中国等板块涨幅居前。

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"A股午后?#20013;?#19978;涨,三大指数全部翻红。创业板涨1.7%,深成指涨0.95%,沪指涨0.05%。语音技术、数字中国等板块涨幅居前。\n","display_time":1556084753,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.3553773.com/live","id":1499474,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":"","type":"live"},{"article":null,"author":{"id":120000002396,"display_name":"?#27779;?#40511;","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/e3b9c1ac-fa45-4f99-a866-d7a458726dc7","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/120000002396"},"channels":["global-channel","us-stock-channel"],"content":"

创业板涨超1%,深成指涨0.5%。沪指跌幅缩窄至0.25%。

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《十年利率心法》深度复盘

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利率:金融市场传导的底层逻辑密码

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金融市场的瞬息万变、资产价格大幅波动,利率就是其底层传导的逻辑链条,是大类资产轮动的核?#37027;?#21160;能力。

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为什么金融市场格外关注央行的货币政策动向?#20426;?#21152;息缩表”的分析评论成为2018年不绝于耳的金融讨论话题。为什么美联储的议息会议会牵动全球市场投资者的神经?

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为什么近期美债收益率的?#26438;?#19978;行,带来了全球金融市场的股债双杀,全球资产价格波动率的?#26438;?#19978;行?一时之间,金融市场风险?#26438;?#20256;导,资产价格起伏震?#30784;?/p>\n

这背后的底层密码就是利率的变化与传导,国债收益率的变化与传导。

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利率的变化对于现代金融市场是真正牵一发而动全身的金融变量。

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利率周期的轮动对于大类资产配置是真正把握其背后规律的底层密码。

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《十年利率心法》的逻辑框架

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资产周期轮动的底层逻辑——?#29992;?#26519;时钟到货币信用

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《十年利率心法》可以分为三大部分,六大章节,章节逻辑上有着完整而严谨的体系设计,层层递进,环环相扣,相信完整学习的你能够体会其中深意。

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利率体系是基础,资产配置是实践,利率周期的起伏是驱动大类资产轮动的核?#37027;?#21160;力,?#21069;?#25569;不同周期下投资机遇的密码。

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《十年利率体系》的上半部分着眼于中国利率体系的基础知识,通过详?#20184;?#23436;整的介绍,旨在帮助投资者建立一套利率的综合分析框架

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《十年利率体系》的下半部分则着眼于资产轮动和资产配置,如果说利率体系理论基础,那么资产配置就是投资实践

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如何把握不同周期下的最优投资配置机会,提高资产配置的收益和效率,相信是每一位市场投资人最为关心的核心议题!

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4月23日,国内两大游?#20998;?#25773;平台之一,腾讯旗下的斗鱼直播正式向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)递交招股书,启动赴美上?#23567;?#26007;鱼拟在纽约证券交易所挂牌,交易代码为“DOYU?#20445;?#34701;资规模达5亿美元。

\n

继虎牙在去年成为国内第一家上市的游?#20998;?#25773;平台以后,斗鱼也终于踏出自己的这一步。上市不到一年,虎牙已经扭亏为盈,实现连续五个季度盈利,而迄今为止依然亏损的斗鱼可以复?#33529;?#29273;的道路吗?

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“虎斗之争”?#29992;?#22810;年,谁将成为最后的赢家?自4g以来高速发展的直播行业会随着技术革新迎来新一轮增长吗?王?#21363;险?#25119;的熊猫直播是否已敲响了行业警钟?

\n

*本文内容由见闻研究团队原创,投资者可以添加微信号“jwzhujiao1”领取7天会员体验资格,并加入会员投研交流群,和研究团队?#40644;?#21457;掘全球市场机会*

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市场对货币政策的预期突然反转:3月底4月初市场普遍预期央行会加码货币宽松,而4月中旬之后,预期央行会紧货币的声音急剧加强。

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反转的背后是种?#36136;录?#20449;号:社融拐点、经济拐点、通?#20984;?#28857;接踵而至,宏观经济杠杆率“一夜回到解放前?#20445;琈LF缩量、?#24213;?#38477;息落空,各种会议要求保持定力,市场情绪大反转,预期央行会紧货币。

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而在疑虑情绪下,刚刚,中国央行进行2674亿元TMLF操作,为创设该工具以来第二次实施操作;操作利率3.15%,与上次操作?#21046;剑越螹LF利率优惠15个基点,这是4月中旬以来,罕见的货币政策维稳信号。

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除此之外 ,人们还在等待周四央行的吹风会,期望能得到更?#29992;?#30830;的指引。

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货币政策真的像市场预期那样,像电风扇那样快速转动吗?货币政策V型紧缩的可能性有多少?

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*本文内容由见闻研究团队原创,会员可以添加微信号“jwzhujiao7”加入会员投研交流群,和研究团队?#40644;?#21457;掘全球市场机会*

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国债期货午后跳水,中金所10年期国债期货跌0.32%,5年期跌0.15%。

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下跌14周,反弹17周。短短七个月里,美股经历了牛熊交替的一个周期。在多家行业巨头?#31080;?#22823;好的推动下,美股周二(4月23日)重回巅峰。

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受医?#24179;?#24247;板块创下1月中旬以来最大单日涨幅提振,标普500指数收涨0.88%,刷新去年9月20日创下的?#24352;?#32426;录。以科技股为主的纳指收涨1.32%,?#40644;?#21435;年8月29日创下的?#24352;?#21069;高;道指也大涨145点。

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今年迄今标普500指数已累计上涨17%,?#20808;?#24180;12月24日低点反弹25%?#33618;?#25351;今年涨幅更是达到了22%。

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美股重回巅峰,美联储自?#36824;?#19981;可没,在今年3月的FOMC会议上,美联储?#26377;?#20102;1月会议令人意外的?#26696;?#27966;转向?#20445;?#28857;阵图显示联储官员对2019年加息次数预期已降至0次。衍生品市场更是反映出交?#33258;比?#20026;美联储年底前甚至有56%的降息概率。

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然而央行层面的助力增?#27833;?#26102;,来自另一方面的压力已悄然抬头……

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三星将在2030年底前累计向逻辑芯片(logic chip)领域投资133万亿韩元。

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温馨提示:业务及估?#30340;?#22411;为华尔街见闻铂金及黑卡客户专享权益,即刻成为华尔街见闻铂金及黑卡会员,解锁本页面并下载Excel数据表,同时获得BAT等30+公司体系化研究服务。

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这是见智研究团队首次分享顾家家居(603816.SH)估?#30340;?#22411;。DCF估值为每股xx元,较4/24午市?#24352;?#20215;格溢价xx%,初始评级为“?#22242;洹薄?/p>\n

我们于4月19日发布了可比公司敏华控股(1999.HK)的估?#30340;?#22411;,您可以点击此处获取。

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顾家家居 VS 敏华控股:

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顾家家居是软体家具行业的龙头企业,2018年顾家家居的实现营业收入91.7亿元,略低于我们预计的敏华控股FY2019营业收入116.4亿港元(?#26174;?00亿元)。而从过去5个财年来看,顾家家居的营业收入复合增长率高达27.9%,是敏华控股的近2倍。需要指出的是,敏华控股的财年结算日为3/31,因此两者在进行数据比较时存在口径差异。

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与敏华控股相比,顾家家居的品类更为丰富,2018年沙发业务的收入占比已降至56%,而床品、配套产品的收入占比分别达到12%、14%。相比之下,敏华控股的收入来源更为单一,我们预计FY2019沙发业务收入占比?#36234;?#36798;到75%。

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在企业未来发?#29399;?#21521;上,顾家家居与敏华控股的走向不尽相同。前者正积极拓宽品类,通过外延并购和内生增长的方式建立起软体大家?#24433;?#22270;,因此被部分投资者誉为“小美的?#20445;?#32780;后者仍专注于功能沙发领域,通过垂?#24065;?#20307;化建立成本优势,通过成本优势在全球市场获取市场份额并形成规模优势,在“能力圈”内?#38750;?#21697;类拓展,风格上更像是“小格力”。

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(更为详尽的比较研究,敬请关注5月见智线?#19979;费?#27963;动。添加hellojianzhi申请加入。)

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估?#30340;?#22411;要点:

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1.营业收入预测:

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顾家家居已经发布了2019年第一季度报告,单季营业收入同比增长为32.8%。考虑到公司2018年豪掷15.3亿元并购了6家同业企业,且并表时间点不同,我们通过假设得出当期6起并购对于营业收入的增量?#27605;自?#20026;x亿元,而内生增长的?#27605;自?#20026;x亿元,合x%。

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我们认为,19Q1是公司经营低点,随着一二线城市地产销售逐步企稳、社会消费品零售数据的回暖,后三个季度的内生增速将高于19Q1。但考虑到并购的基数问题,我们预测的2019营业收入增速xx%略低于19Q1水平,并略高于当前WIND一致预期x%。

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而2020年开始,不考虑大型并?#21512;?#30446;,我们预测公司营业收入增速将会降档至xx%,一方面地产销售面积难有较大增长空间,另一方面顾家家居的渠道铺设已较为完善(2018年:6076家),后续每年增长数量将降低至500家?#38405;凇?/p>\n

2.毛利率预测:

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1Q19,顾家家居的毛利?#24335;?#20026;34.7%,环比、同比分别降低3.2、1.8个百分点。我们认为,最主要的原因还是因为新并购业务整体毛利率水平?#31995;?#25152;致(2018年净利润?#24335;?#20026;2%)。展望全年,我们预测毛利率为xx%,同比2018年降低x个百分点。2020-2023年,我们预测毛利?#24335;?#31283;步提升至xx%,回到2018年的水平。

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3.费用率预测:

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1Q19,顾家家居的销售费用率、研发费用率分别较1Q18同比增加x、x个百分点,我们认为与新并购业务全面并表有关。展望全年,我们预测整体经营费用率为xx%,将较2018年提升x个百分点。2020-2023年,我们预测整体经营费用?#24335;?#31283;步下降至xx%。

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4.盈利预测:

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由于毛利率的下降、费用率的上升,我们预计2019年顾家家居的营业利润?#24335;?#19979;降x个百分点,而归母净利润增长率为xx%,将低于营业收入的增幅。需要指出的是,我们的盈利预测较市场一致预期12.6亿元低xx%。而2020-2023年,我们预测归母净利润将进一步稳定增长至xx亿元。

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估?#21040;?#26524;:

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在WACC=10.5%,?#20332;?#22686;长率为2.5%的假设之下,DCF估值为xx元/股,较4/24午市?#24352;?#20215;溢价xx%。DCF目标价对应2019年的xx倍市盈率。

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行业层面而言,我们认为软体家具行业竞争格局较好,在品牌优势、规模效应、渠道广度方面,龙头企业的竞争优势相对明显。

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公司层面而言,我们判断2019年是顾家家居的调整之年,一方面渠道拓展的高峰期已过,另一方面2018年多项并购仍需全方位的整合。因此,我们对于2019年的盈利增速预期并不乐观。

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综上,在当前时间点我们给予顾家家?#21360;暗团洹?#35780;级。

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