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《十年利率心法》的逻辑框架

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资产周期轮动的底层逻辑——?#29992;?#26519;时钟到货币信用

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《十年利率心法》可以分为三大部分,六大?#38470;冢陆?#36923;辑上有着完整而严谨的体系设计,层层递进,环环相扣,相信完整学习的你能够体会其中深意。

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利率体系是基础,资产配置是实践,利率周期的起伏是驱动大类资产轮动的核?#37027;?#21160;力,?#21069;?#25569;不同周期下投资机遇的密码。

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《十年利率体系》的上半部分着眼于中国利率体系的基础知识,通过详?#20184;?#23436;整的介绍,旨在帮助投资者建立一套利率的综合分析框架

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《十年利率体系》的下半部分则着眼于资产轮动和资产配置,如果说利率体系理论基础,那么资产配置就是投资实践

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如何把握不同周期下的最优投资配置机会,提高资产配置的收益和效率,相信是每一位市场投资人最为关心的核心议题!

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招商证券公告,公司拟回购A股股票,回购金额不低于6.5亿元,不超过13亿元,回购价格不超过26.35元/股。公司同日发布公开配股预案。公司拟按照每10股配售不超过3股的比例向全体A股股东配售。

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你怎么看招商证券这样的操作?

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?#21046;?#30475;盘认为:这个操作有点骚,向全体股东融资,股东不参与配售的话,相当于直接亏损,融资相当于抽血,为了防止抽血过多,股东晕倒,还回购一点,相当于抽血?#26696;缺?#32418;枣枸?#35762;?#34917;充一下。

","fixed_participatent_count":0,"id":263,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/c51e2488-2c6e-4d45-8ed3-daa5e93121e9.jpg","including_vote":false,"interactive_type":"discuss","is_participated":false,"is_voted":false,"latest_participants":["https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/d4d70626-8d80-4abd-abf1-5a167b3efde1","https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b6d8c45c-5a9d-443b-a646-05b53ab35452","https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/c91c8b03-0f7e-433d-adc7-6a936371b5db"],"participatent_count":4117,"play_uris":null,"precedence":0,"publisher":"","related_articles":[],"rumor_status":"","status":"published","title":"骚操作!招商证券一边回购一边配股,你怎么看?","updated_at":1552399260,"uri":"http://www.3553773.com/discuss/263","video_uri":""},{"category":{"key":"","name":""},"created_at":1552381001,"description":"

黄燕铭最新?#19981;?#31216;:

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第一,这?#20013;?#24773;上升它是有基础的。

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第二,这个行情接下来还要继续走,这个位置上不是最高点。

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第三,很多人问我这个位置上究竟应该下车还是上车,在这个位置上,如果?#30340;?#24050;经在车上了,继续保持在车上,如果还没赶上车的要趁着最近一段时间的市场的调整赶紧上车,后面还有一波机会。

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那么,你同意么?

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年初?#20004;瘢?月12日),创业板指数已经上涨超过40%,今天?#24352;?#25253;1773.43点,你认为创业板指数本月(3月份)会重返2000点吗?

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如果创业板指重返2000点,那?#21019;?#29616;在起还需再涨13%,这也意味着较年初水平上涨近60%。

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今年以?#21019;?#19994;板指数的涨幅达41.81%,2月份以来到今日盘中最高时,涨幅达46%。创业板走出了史上最牛的开年涨幅,比2015年年初涨幅还大。

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中信证券最近研报,首度编制了各大指数的市场温度,创业板指数的温度已经高达100度,甚至比2015年上半年还热。

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上一次创业板指在2000以上位置还要追溯到2016年底:

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","fixed_participatent_count":0,"id":261,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/f221f8fd-3a11-4139-be65-74efd4b3ce9f.jpg","including_vote":true,"interactive_type":"discuss","is_participated":false,"is_voted":false,"latest_participants":["https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/d034b7d8-f516-4dfc-9e87-1a247e45fa8f","https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ivanka_avatar_4.png","https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ivanka_avatar_9.png"],"participatent_count":3461,"play_uris":null,"precedence":0,"publisher":"","related_articles":[],"rumor_status":"","status":"published","title":"【投票】创业板走出史上最牛开局!年初?#20004;?#29378;飙42% 这个月会冲上2000点吗?","updated_at":1552379242,"uri":"http://www.3553773.com/discuss/261","video_uri":"","vote":{"end_time":1554048000,"options":[{"id":205,"option":"会","votes":570,"ratio":57.28643216080402},{"id":206,"option":"不会","votes":425,"ratio":42.71356783919598}],"start_time":1552455205,"title":"你认为这个月创业板指会重返2000点吗?","type":"single"}}],"items_count":236,"next_cursor":"2","title":"互动话题"}},"[\"/content/lives\",{\"channel\":\"global-channel\",\"limit\":6,\"first_page\":true,\"score\":\"2,3\"}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"items":[{"article":{"id":3492586,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/bcf35a7f-99d2-49ef-b85a-3ec47a6b8f1a.jpg","platforms":["wscn-platform"],"title":"官媒头版评论?#33322;?#26500;美股十年牛市基因,治A股“蛮牛?#20445;?#21161;慢牛长牛","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/articles/3492586"},"author":{"id":120000002067,"display_name":"杨桂华","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/3ffb4c02-4b77-4700-9089-5f17e07dc65d","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/120000002067"},"channels":["global-channel"],"content":"

【证券时报头版评论?#33322;?#26500;美股十年牛市基因,治A股“蛮牛?#20445;?#21161;慢牛长牛】与新兴市场股市比较,本轮美股牛市的波动率明显较低。美股市场的走势与经济基本面环境有着密不可分的联系。分红和回购成为美股牛市的主要动力源。所以,美股这轮牛市也是典型的“缩容式牛?#23567;薄?#26368;后,美股牛市的“基因?#34987;?#20307;现在美股的定?#36824;?#33021;和开放性之上。这些长牛的“基因?#24065;?#33021;给A股带来一些启示,A股市场也有望甩掉以往“大起大落”的标签,力争实现稳健的慢牛、长牛而不是“蛮牛”。

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"【证券时报头版评论?#33322;?#26500;美股十年牛市基因,治A股“蛮牛?#20445;?#21161;慢牛长牛】与新兴市场股市比较,本轮美股牛市的波动率明显较低。美股市场的走势与经济基本面环境有着密不可分的联系。分红和回购成为美股牛市的主要动力源。所以,美股这轮牛市也是典型的“缩容式牛?#23567;薄?#26368;后,美股牛市的“基因?#34987;?#20307;现在美股的定?#36824;?#33021;和开放性之上。这些长牛的“基因?#24065;?#33021;给A股带来一些启示,A股市场也有望甩掉以往“大起大落”的标签,力争实现稳健的慢牛、长牛而不是“蛮牛”。\n","display_time":1552424588,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.3553773.com/live","id":1469714,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":""},{"article":{"id":3492591,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/6df84bad-9c8d-4fa6-9464-c14a5a72637d.jpg","platforms":["wscn-platform"],"title":"中证报头版:企业紧锣密鼓备战科创板 部分港股公司筹划回归","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/articles/3492591"},"author":{"id":120000002067,"display_name":"杨桂华","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/3ffb4c02-4b77-4700-9089-5f17e07dc65d","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/120000002067"},"channels":["global-channel"],"content":"

【中证报头版:企业紧锣密鼓备战科创板,部分港股公司筹划回归】近期多家新三板挂牌企业陆续公告计划申请科创板上市,港股上市企业亦开启了回归热潮。一些A股公司对于分拆旗下子公司登陆科创板也显现出较大兴趣。?#36865;猓?#22810;家已向港交所递交上市申请的公司人士透露,未来不排除在完成H股发行后申请科创板上市的可能性。

\n","content_more":"

华尔街见闻注:–8日,复旦张江在港交所公告称,建议发行A股并于科创板上?#23567;?br/>\n–12日晚间,新三板公司赛特斯表示,拟终止公司发行H股股票并在香港联合交易所上市的申请,明?#26041;牌?#39321;港上市,转投科创板。

\n","content_text":"【中证报头版:企业紧锣密鼓备战科创板,部分港股公司筹划回归】近期多家新三板挂牌企业陆续公告计划申请科创板上市,港股上市企业亦开启了回归热潮。一些A股公司对于分拆旗下子公司登陆科创板也显现出较大兴趣。?#36865;猓?#22810;家已向港交所递交上市申请的公司人士透露,未来不排除在完成H股发行后申请科创板上市的可能性。\n","display_time":1552423197,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.3553773.com/live","id":1469773,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":""},{"article":null,"author":{"id":694840,"display_name":"wBlake","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/bc3971d4-2d62-4d54-b1dd-7058c60c6ffa","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/694840"},"channels":["global-channel","forex-channel","oil-channel"],"content":"

美国3月8日当周API原油库存 -258万桶,预期 +270万桶,前值 +729万桶。
\n美国3月8日当周API库欣地区原油库存 -110万桶,前值 +113万桶。
\n美国3月8日当周API汽油库存 -585万桶,前值 -39.1万桶。
\n美国3月8日当周API精炼油库存 +19.5万桶,前值 -310万桶。

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"美国3月8日当周API原油库存 -258万桶,预期 +270万桶,前值 +729万桶。\n美国3月8日当周API库欣地区原油库存 -110万桶,前值 +113万桶。\n美国3月8日当周API汽油库存 -585万桶,前值 -39.1万桶。\n美国3月8日当周API精炼油库存 +19.5万桶,前值 -310万桶。\n","display_time":1552422982,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.3553773.com/live","id":1469772,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":""},{"article":null,"author":{"id":120000002067,"display_name":"杨桂华","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/3ffb4c02-4b77-4700-9089-5f17e07dc65d","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/120000002067"},"channels":["us-stock-channel","global-channel"],"content":"

标普500指数11大板块涨跌各异,9大板块收涨,2大板块收跌?#40644;?#20013;,受波音大跌拖累,工业板块领跌,另外下跌的是日常消费品板块;医?#31080;?#20581;板块领涨,其次是公用事业板块。

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"标普500指数11大板块涨跌各异,9大板块收涨,2大板块收跌?#40644;?#20013;,受波音大跌拖累,工业板块领跌,另外下跌的是日常消费品板块;医?#31080;?#20581;板块领涨,其次是公用事业板块。\n","display_time":1552422635,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.3553773.com/live","id":1469770,"image_uris":["https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/96d36cfc-a262-44c6-b39a-01541d70dce5.png"],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":""},{"article":{"id":3492518,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/31bb8897-1e67-4a46-b4b6-e02486e363c3.jpg","platforms":["wscn-platform"],"title":"21国停飞或禁飞737MAX!波音创近十年最大两日跌幅","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/articles/3492518"},"author":{"id":120000002067,"display_name":"杨桂华","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/3ffb4c02-4b77-4700-9089-5f17e07dc65d","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/120000002067"},"channels":["us-stock-channel","global-channel"],"content":"

波音收跌6.15%,375.41美元,创下2013年7月以来最高交易量。该股两日累跌11.15%,创下2009年7月以来的最大两日跌幅。此前,逾20国停飞或禁飞737MAX,英德法等多个欧洲国家禁止737 MAX机型进入领空。

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"波音收跌6.15%,375.41美元,创下2013年7月以来最高交易量。该股两日累跌11.15%,创下2009年7月以来的最大两日跌幅。此前,逾20国停飞或禁飞737MAX,英德法等多个欧洲国家禁止737 MAX机型进入领空。\n","display_time":1552420804,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.3553773.com/live","id":1469756,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":""},{"article":null,"author":{"id":694840,"display_name":"wBlake","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/bc3971d4-2d62-4d54-b1dd-7058c60c6ffa","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/694840"},"channels":["us-stock-channel","global-channel","forex-channel","goldc-channel"],"content":"

在美上市MSCI英国ETF跌幅扩大至0.32%,英国议会投票结果揭晓前跌幅为0.2%。

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"在美上市MSCI英国ETF跌幅扩大至0.32%,英国议会投票结果揭晓前跌幅为0.2%。\n","display_time":1552419036,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.3553773.com/live","id":1469736,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":""}],"next_cursor":"1552419036","op_cursor":"4233340","polling_cursor":"1469714"}},"[\"/premium/topics/carousel/mixads\",{\"accept\":\"topic\",\"order\":true,\"limit\":3}]":{"ttl":1,"value":[{"resource":{"author":{"author_short_intro":"荒原资产创始人兼投?#39318;?#30417;、前申银万国首席策略分析师","display_name":"大师课讲师·凌鹏","id":120000003952},"content_count":0,"id":1002744,"image":{"horizontal_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/2c317658-46e4-43b7-a06b-af0880392f75.jpg","vertical_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/1ccceac5-8c40-4187-ad17-b2b60601fd3d.jpg"},"is_audio":false,"is_internal":false,"is_text":true,"is_video":true,"latest_article":{"content_short":"【大师课:A股复盘?#22987;恰?013年是投资思路转变的分水岭","id":3491555,"title":"科创板会有何影响?先复盘创业板与中小板【投资大学·大师课第?#31169;病?,"uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/articles/3491555?layout=wscn-layout"},"most_recent_content_time":1552374000,"product":{"bought_count":2128,"discount_copywriting":"原价199元","discount_text":"原价199元","end_time_timestamp":0,"id":11958,"is_can_renewal":true,"is_multi_products":false,"is_paid":false,"min_product_price":15900,"name":"A股复盘?#22987;恰?#20940;鹏 | 大师课","origin_price":15900,"period":-1,"price":15900,"spu_id":11620,"weekly_bought_count":56},"sub_title":"十一年市场深度解析(2008-2018)","summary":"

这是2019年投资者的一堂必修课——A 股深度复盘。

\n\n

如何在历史的细节中挖掘机会信?#29275;?#29702;解市场“常识?#20445;?#23398;会?#26696;?#30424;”是投资者不断进阶的一项必要技能。《见闻大师课》开年力作《A 股复盘指南?#26041;?#22238;顾、解析过去11年的A股市场(2008-2018),还原经典案例、从宏观策略的角度总结复盘方法。

\n\n

?

\n\n

大师课主讲人:凌鹏

\n\n

荒原资产创始人兼投?#39318;?#30417;、前申银万国首席策略分析师;2007年、2010年和2012年三次获评新财富策略分析师第一名。
\n从大学讲台到A股市场,从卖方研究到买方实战,凌鹏不断打磨自己的投资策略方法。而过去11的A股市场也在不断演进变化,有人说我们在经历“十年魔咒?#20445;?#21069;?#26696;?#26434;。从11年市场全貌?#36739;?#33410;深处,在深入复盘中,我们可以看到些什么?在这个A股市场的关键时间点,这是2019年投资者的一堂必修课。

\n\n

——大师课组委会凌鹏推荐词

\n\n

?

\n\n

课程亮点:

\n\n\n\n

?

\n\n

如何学习

\n\n\n\n

?

\n\n

\"image\"/

\n","summary_rich_text":"

这是2019年投资者的一堂必修课——A 股深度复盘。

如何在历史的细节中挖掘机会信?#29275;?#29702;解市场“常识?#20445;?#23398;会?#26696;?#30424;”是投资者不断进阶的一项必要技能。《见闻大师课》开年力作《A 股复盘指南?#26041;?#22238;顾、解析过去11年的A股市场(2008-2018),还原经典案例、从宏观策略的角度总结复盘方法。

?

大师课主讲人:凌鹏

荒原资产创始人兼投?#39318;?#30417;、前申银万国首席策略分析师;2007年、2010年和2012年三次获评新财富策略分析师第一名。

从大学讲台到A股市场,从卖方研究到买方实战,凌鹏不断打磨自己的投资策略方法。而过去11的A股市场也在不断演进变化,有人说我们在经历“十年魔咒?#20445;?#21069;?#26696;?#26434;。从11年市场全貌?#36739;?#33410;深处,在深入复盘中,我们可以看到些什么?在这个A股市场的关键时间点,这是2019年投资者的一堂必修课。



——大师课组委会凌鹏推荐词

?

课程亮点:

?

如何学习

?

","title":"A股复盘?#22987;恰?#20940;鹏 | 大师课","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/topics/1002744"},"resource_type":"topic"},{"resource":{"author":{"author_short_intro":"中欧国际工商学院金融与会计学教授;中欧财富管理研究中心主任;","display_name":"?#25970;?,"id":120000003941},"content_count":0,"id":1002647,"image":{"horizontal_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/4316af97-c57c-46c3-aace-f4bf1cc8ba0c.jpg","vertical_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/58436166-062f-491d-9bd3-c6331b5b982a.jpg"},"is_audio":true,"is_internal":false,"is_text":false,"is_video":false,"latest_article":{"content_short":"作家茨威格在《人类群星闪耀时》写过的一句话:“一个人生命中最大的?#20197;耍?#33707;过于在他的人生中途发现了自己的使命。”","id":3484030,"title":"【导言】?#25970;齲何?#20204;既不是财富的奴隶,亦不是财富的主人,而是财富的管家!","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/articles/3484030?layout=wscn-layout"},"most_recent_content_time":1551147038,"product":{"bought_count":1206,"discount_copywriting":"原价199元","discount_text":"原价199元","end_time_timestamp":0,"id":11478,"is_can_renewal":true,"is_multi_products":false,"is_paid":false,"min_product_price":9900,"name":"?#25970;齲?#20013;欧教授的2019财富锦囊","origin_price":9900,"period":-1,"price":9900,"spu_id":11141,"weekly_bought_count":7},"sub_title":"学院派教你如何稳中求胜地投资理财","summary":"

\"image\"/

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新课上线,限时5折:99元

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(原价:199元)

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2018年,可谓是波动的一年,A股屡屡新?#20572;?#32654;股高位重挫,贸易摩擦一波三折,保护主义全球蔓延“楼市房住不炒”、“抑制?#26102;?#22806;流”、“ICO 骗局”、“P2P 爆?#20303;弊时?#23506;冬的回声不断涌现,百年来未有之变局引人深思。当下时点,财富管理成为了越来?#34903;?#35201;的议题,中国家庭如何更好地配置个人和家庭资产愈发关键。更多的人开始成熟地思?#24613;?#20540;增值的中长期的投资策略,资产配置需求也日趋多元化和国际化。

\n\n

所以,如何能在多元分散的投?#26102;?#30340;中更稳?#20303;?#26356;?#34892;?#29575;的去做出投资的判断和框架的选择呢?今天我就用12堂案例课,深入大家的投资配?#36152;?#26223;,引导思考模式、搭建一个适合自己的投资框架。投资2019,用场景构建投资逻辑,让财富创造幸福人生,学院派教授教你如何稳中求胜地投资理财!

\n","summary_rich_text":"

新课上线,限时5折:99元

(原价:199元)

2018年,可谓是波动的一年,A股屡屡新?#20572;?#32654;股高位重挫,贸易摩擦一波三折,保护主义全球蔓延“楼市房住不炒”、“抑制?#26102;?#22806;流”、“ICO 骗局”、“P2P 爆?#20303;弊时?#23506;冬的回声不断涌现,百年来未有之变局引人深思。当下时点,财富管理成为了越来?#34903;?#35201;的议题,中国家庭如何更好地配置个人和家庭资产愈发关键。更多的人开始成熟地思?#24613;?#20540;增值的中长期的投资策略,资产配置需求也日趋多元化和国际化。

所以,如何能在多元分散的投?#26102;?#30340;中更稳?#20303;?#26356;?#34892;?#29575;的去做出投资的判断和框架的选择呢?今天我就用12堂案例课,深入大家的投资配?#36152;?#26223;,引导思考模式、搭建一个适合自己的投资框架。投资2019,用场景构建投资逻辑,让财富创造幸福人生,学院派教授教你如何稳中求胜地投资理财!

","title":"?#25970;齲?#20013;欧教授的2019财富锦囊","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/topics/1002647"},"resource_type":"topic"},{"resource":{"author":{"author_short_intro":"全球排名第二的开源量化交易平台vn.py 创始人","display_name":"?#23402;?#20248;","id":120000003908},"content_count":0,"id":1002478,"image":{"horizontal_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/67c03665-ffbd-43f7-bf06-7c7f1b97c449.jpg","vertical_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/6c89e419-95e0-4c0d-bf50-b7f3edc88500.jpg"},"is_audio":false,"is_internal":false,"is_text":true,"is_video":true,"latest_article":{"content_short":"在这一集里面我们将试着回到比较简单的长周期的海龟信?#29275;?#26469;看看如何把海龟信号直接用在某一个单?#26174;?#30340;回测上 ——相当于用一个简化版的海龟策略去进一步接近实盘","id":3489032,"title":"15 【信号】单?#26174;?#28023;龟信号回测 ","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/articles/3489032?layout=wscn-layout"},"most_recent_content_time":1552378677,"product":{"bought_count":703,"discount_copywriting":"","discount_text":"","end_time_timestamp":0,"id":11236,"is_can_renewal":true,"is_multi_products":false,"is_paid":false,"min_product_price":19900,"name":"30堂实战?#38395;?#36890;量化交易","origin_price":19900,"period":-1,"price":19900,"spu_id":10896,"weekly_bought_count":10},"sub_title":"小白学量化从0-1直达中级","summary":"

?#31350;?#31243;为《Quant 全实战进阶课》第一阶

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?

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学习目标

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?
\n**
\n好消息!
\n**

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?

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购买?#31350;?#31243;,即
\n赠送学前小课
\n《投资场景下的Python入门15课》,让你们学到最硬核的,先跑起来!

\n\n

?

\n\n

(订阅后,工作人员将会在1~3个工作日内为您免费开通学前小课,赠阅?#34892;?#26399;为期一年,请在“app-我的-付?#35759;?#38405;-订阅列表”进行查看)

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?

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\"image\"/

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\"image\"/

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\"image\"/

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\"image\"/

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请在购买专辑后认真收听【入学准备】& 【入学测试】,根据提示操作,并定位自己的起步点

\n\n
\n\n

期待你有更多收获!

\n\n

?

\n","summary_rich_text":"

?#31350;?#31243;为《Quant 全实战进阶课》第一阶

?

学习目标

?

好消息!

?

购买?#31350;?#31243;,即赠送学前小课《投资场景下的Python入门15课》,让你们学到最硬核的,先跑起来!

?

(订阅后,工作人员将会在1~3个工作日内为您免费开通学前小课,赠阅?#34892;?#26399;为期一年,请在“app-我的-付?#35759;?#38405;-订阅列表”进行查看)

* 有任何课程相关疑问可以咨询助教小姐姐微信?#29275;?strong>jwzhujiao2

?

请在购买专辑后认真收听【入学准备】& 【入学测试】,根据提示操作,并定位自己的起步点

?

期待你有更多收获!

?

","title":"30堂实战?#38395;?#36890;量化交易","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/topics/1002478"},"resource_type":"topic"}]},"[\"/earn/impression\",{\"channel\":\"wscn-pc-global-A6\",\"category\":\"ownerwscn\",\"andcategory\":\"desktop\",\"sort\":\"-precedence,-created_at\"}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"item_count":1,"items":[{"id":8682,"name":"3.11-3.12选股宝页中矩形","is_hidden_in_review":false,"position":0,"kind":"banner"}],"click_count":0,"impressions_count":0}},"[\"/content/fabricate-articles\",{\"channel\":\"global-carousel\",\"accept\":\"article,newsroom\",\"limit\":8}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"next_cursor":"eyJTbG90T2Zmc2V0IjowLCJUb3RhbENvdW50Ijo4LCJBcnRpY2xlTGUiOjE1NTI0MjQxMzJ9","is_inhouse":false,"item_count":8,"items":[{"resource_type":"article","resource_owner":"inhouse","resource":{"id":3492589,"title":"美股涨跌不一 波音连续第二日大跌 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MAX机型进入领空。欧盟监管机构继英国后宣布停飞。至少23个国?#19994;?#21306;的航空公司宣布停飞。波音 ?#20449;?月前“打补丁?#20445;?#32929;价收跌逾6%,两日累跌逾11%。","content_preview":"","is_priced":false,"is_trial":false,"is_paid":false,"comment_disabled":false,"uri":"http://www.3553773.com/articles/3492518","vip_uri":"","comment_count":0,"is_favourite":false,"pageviews":0,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/31bb8897-1e67-4a46-b4b6-e02486e363c3.jpg","use_default_image":false,"source_name":"高姝睿、李丹","source_uri":"","display_time":1552423108,"author":{"id":120000001939,"display_name":"高姝睿","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/f3c46bac-ddd9-4d99-8e01-47cdbf7be1fd","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/120000001939"},"categories":null,"platforms":["wscn-platform"],"related_topics":null,"related_themes":[{"id":1005707,"title":"美股动态与策略","image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/1fe26c97-5e97-4907-ab1c-ef217159469c.jpg","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/themes/1005707"},{"id":1004235,"title":"明星公司动态跟踪","image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/13176221-8a28-45ea-a49e-c3491618577e.jpg","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/themes/1004235"},{"id":1005683,"title":"突发要闻-Breaking News","image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/308ec6bc-c808-4b0e-8b83-4c4271ca170e.jpg","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/themes/1005683"}],"unshow_content_short":false,"is_in_vip_privilege":false,"vip_type":""}},{"resource_type":"article","resource_owner":"inhouse","resource":{"id":3492588,"title":"媒体:欧盟计划平衡中欧贸易 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| 年报点评","slot_title":"","content_short":"派息比率提升的同时,还祭出了一份金额介于50-100亿元的回购计划,将“优秀”进行?#38477;住?,"content_preview":"

2019年3月12日盘后,中国平安公布2018年报。

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年报要点如下:

\n

2018年集团实现归属公司股东净利润1074亿元,同比增长20.6%,略超市场一?#30053;?#26399;的1061亿元;第四季度的归母净利润达到280亿元,同比增长23%,增速高于前三季度。

\n

2018年末集团内含价值为10025亿元,同比增长21.5%,增速高于1H18的12.4%,是集团史上首次?#40644;?#19975;亿大观。

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寿险及健康险业务的新业务价值达到723亿元,同比增长7.3%,其中2H18增速?#30740;?#22797;至16.9%;新业务价值率同比提升4.4个百分点,好于市场预期。

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产险原保费为2474亿,同比增长15%,综合成本率为96%,同比下降0.2PCT。

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平安银行业绩稳步增长,零售业务继续高歌猛进,净息差保?#25351;纳?#36235;势。

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金融科技与医疗科技业务实现运营利润77.5亿元,同比实现翻?#19969;?/p>\n

总投资收益率大幅下滑2.3个百分点至3.7%,主要受会?#21697;?#31867;和市场环境的叠加影响。

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公司宣派2018年末期股息每股1.10元,加之每股0.62元的中期股息及每股0.20元的30周年特别股息,全年股息达到每股1.92元,超出了2017年每股1.50元的派息水平。

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公司宣布将首次实施回购股份的方案,回购资金总额介于50-100亿元。

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以下为详细分析:

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保险板块业绩贡献度进一步提升:

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从归属公司股东的净利润的占比来看,保险板块的贡献度进一步提升,2018年保险业务实现归母净利润701.3亿元,同比增长43.2%,带动业绩占比提升10.3个百分点至65.3%。

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银行板块的业绩表现依然稳健,全年实现归母净利润为144亿元,同比增长7%,业绩占比提升至13.4%。

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资管板块方面,信?#23567;?#35777;券、其他资产管理分别贡献业绩30.1、16.0、82.6亿元,?#20808;?#24180;同期均有不同程度倒退,三者合计贡献归母净利润128.7亿元,板块整体业绩占比12%。

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2018年金融科技板块的归母净利润倒退4.2%至140亿元,主要原因是2018年较2017年录得更少的一次性损益。

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巨大的流量池和综合金融服务能力是中国平安不可比拟的竞争优势:

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2018年,中国平安个人客户数(去重)达到1.84亿人,同比增长11%,增速较往年有所回落。公司披露,个人业务营运利润达到977.3亿元,同比增长31.1%,?#25216;?#22242;归母营运利润的比例提高8.1个百分点至86.8%。

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公司的综合金融战略实施成效明显,客户在集团各产品线之间交叉渗透,客户人均持有合同数继续稳步增长,2018年末已达到2.53个,持有多?#26131;?#20844;司合同的客户数比例上升6.1个百分点至34.6%。

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截止至2018年末,公司全口径的互联网用户量达到5.38亿人,同比增长23.4%。见智认为,巨大的流量池和综合金融服务能力是中国平安不可比拟的竞争优势。

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新业务价值增速回弹,寿险与健康险板块19年盈利增长确定性强:

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2018年,中国平安的寿险与健康险业务实现归母净利润579亿元,同比大幅增长62.4%,其中下半年业绩增长接近翻倍,超出市场预期。

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2018全年平安寿险及健康险板块新业务价值为722.9亿元,同比增长7.3%,增速较往年大幅回落。但从趋势上来看,2018上半年新业务价值增速仅为0.2%,但下半年已迅速修复至16.9%。

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新业务价值=首年保费*新业务价值率。过去几年,寿险及健康险行业?#27604;?#30340;核?#37027;?#21160;因素为在保险代理人规模的?#35813;?#25193;大,带动驱动首年保费?#20013;?#24555;速增长。2018年,行业进入调整期,保险代理人规模切换至缓速增长模式,平安寿险及健康险业务2018年月均代理人规模仅增长4.8%,而期末代理人规模为141.7万人,较年初仅增长2.3%。受此影响,2018年平安寿险及健康险业务的首年保费仅为1654.4亿元,同比倒退3.6%(中报倒退10%)。

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得益于平?#24067;?#26102;调整策略,积极通过调整产品结构优化新业务质量,2018年新业务价值率大幅提升4.4个百分点,高于2017年1.9个百分点的提升幅度。其中,代理人渠道新业务价值率达到57.1%,同比提升7.2个百分点。

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截止至2018年末,平安寿险及健康险业务剩余边?#35270;?#39069;为7866亿元,较2017年末同比增长27.6%。2018年,剩余边际摊销为623亿元,同比增长25%,?#21069;?#22359;会计利润的核心来源,约占寿险及健康险业务税前营运利润的2/3。考虑到平安的剩余边?#35270;?#39069;?#20013;?#22686;长,2019年寿险及健康险业务的盈利增长确定性依然较强。

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会计准则变更叠加?#26102;?#24066;场动荡,保险业务总投资收益率下滑至3.7%

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2018年,中国平安保险业务的总投资收益率下降至近年的低点3.7%,低于中报和三季报的4.0%。

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一方面,国内、国内?#26102;?#24066;场波动加大,导致公司投资收益率大幅下滑,另一方面中国平安于2018年起实施新会计准则,在新会计准则下公司保险子公司被分类为“以公允价值计量且变动计入损益的金融资产”数额大幅增加,客观上加大了收益率的波动幅度。

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零售业务高歌猛进,净息差有望?#20013;纳疲?/strong>

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平安银行2018年实现归母净利润248.2亿元,同比增长7.0%,增速较前三季度提升0.2个百分点。全年扣非净资产收益率(ROE)为11.44%,较2017年轻微下降0.17个百分点。

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平安银行的零售转型成效再次得到验证。2018年,零售业务的营业收入和净利润占比分别达到53%、69%,同比分别提升8.9%、1.4%。

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从个人贷款占贷款总额的比例来看,2018年末已经达到57.8%,对比2016年末仅为36.7%。值得注意的是,2018年平安银行信用卡用户数量增长34.8%,增速是中国平安各业务条线中最高的。

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在NIM方面,平安银行全年的净息差为2.35%,同比2017年减少0.02个百分点。但从趋势上而言,1Q18的2.25%即为全年低点,此后的三个季度净息差环比?#20013;?#25552;升,我们预估4Q18净息差已达到2.5%左右。展望未来,我们认为在市场资金趋于宽松、平安零售转型?#20013;?#25512;进的大背景下,净息差仍有?#32435;?#31354;间。

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而在资产质量方面,主要受到企业贷款不良加强确认的影响,2018年末平安银行不良贷款率相比去年同期提升0.05个百分点至1.75%,相比3Q18则环比提升0.07个百分点。另一方面,逾期90天以上贷款率大幅下降0.68个百分点至1.70%,不良偏离度指标降至近年以来的低位97%。整体而言,平安银行的资产质量仍稳中向好,且未来的不良确认压力将?#29616;?#21069;明显降低。?#36865;猓?#25320;备覆盖率达到155.2%,同比增加4.2个百分点,风险抵补能力有所增强,但?#28304;?#25552;升空间。

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资产管理业务表现逊于预期,但“牛市情?#22330;?#19979;2019年或有较大向上弹性:

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2018年,中国平安的资产管理业务表现逊于预期,信?#23567;?#35777;券及其他资管业务总计实现归母净利润128.7亿元,同比大幅减少19.2%。

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具体而言,平安信托2018年归母净利润倒退23.9%,主要原因是信托资产管理规模的下降以及投资收益的下降?#40644;?#23433;证券2018年归母净利润倒退21.7%,主要受到了市况的拖累,经营表现仍优于行业?#40644;?#20182;资管业务的业绩主要包括平安资产管理、平安融?#39318;?#36161;、平安海外控股等经营成果,2H18此块业务的归母净利润同比倒退73.1%,我们判断业绩的波动可能与平安的海外业务有关。

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总的来看,2018年资产管理业务逊于预期与大市密切相关,但若“牛?#23567;崩?#20020;,此块业务也应具备不错的向上业绩弹性。

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金融科技与医疗科技业务实现运营利润翻倍:

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中国平安的金融科技与医疗科技业务主要透过陆金所控股、平安好医生、金融一?#36865;ā?#24179;安医保科技、汽车之?#19994;?#32463;营实体。

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2018年,金融科技与医疗科技业务的归母净利润同比减少4%至140亿元,这主要是因为2017年子公司平安好医生录得重组交易净利润108.5亿元,而2018年类似的非经常性损益仅有72.4亿元。

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实际上,2018年中国平安金融科技与医疗科技业务表现可圈可点,全年运营利润同比翻倍至77.5亿元,而归母运营利润则同比增长79.5%至67.7亿元。

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市场较为关注的陆金所控股亦披?#35835;?#37096;分经营数据,2018年活跃投资用户数为1117万,同比增长16.2%,资产管理规模受制于金融去杠杠同比下降20%至3694亿元,管理贷款余额同比增长30%至3750亿元,30天以上逾期率为2.3%。

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?#36865;猓?#20540;得一提的是平安金融与医疗科技板块的多家?#23736;?#35282;兽”于2018年陆续完成新一轮投资,其中陆金所控股投后估值达到394亿美元。

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内含价值首破万亿大观:

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2018年末,中国内含价值为10024.6亿元,同比增长21.5%,增速较2018上半年的12.4%明显提升,是公司历史上首次?#40644;?#19975;亿,绝对规模领跑行业。

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分结构来看,寿险及健康险业务的内涵价值为6132.2亿元,同比增长23.5%,高于集团EV增速,比重已进一步升至61.2%。

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而从增长归因来看,内含价值预期回报和新业务价值创造仍是相对稳定的增长推动力,而营?#20284;?#24046;和市场价值调整是集团内含价?#24503;?#36229;预期的主要原因。

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结语:

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中国平安交出了一份略超市场预期的经营答卷,多项经营指标均创历史新高。而在全年派息比率提升的同时,还祭出了一份金额介于50-100亿元的回购计划,将“优秀”进行?#38477;住?/p>","is_priced":true,"is_trial":false,"is_paid":false,"comment_disabled":false,"uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/articles/3492524?layout=wscn-layout","vip_uri":"http://www.3553773.com/vip/articles/3492524","comment_count":0,"is_favourite":false,"pageviews":0,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/45178d2e-93f0-4971-8157-92b0a2f203a5.jpg","use_default_image":false,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","display_time":1552417804,"author":{"id":120000002536,"display_name":"见智君","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/bfd377bf-f6c4-4785-a0ee-76e50626c13d","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/120000002536"},"categories":null,"platforms":["wscn-platform"],"related_topics":[{"id":1002092,"title":"见智投研圈","image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/1d34fd75-cd38-469b-8f61-97cfbe7cdadb.jpg","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/topics/1002092"}],"related_themes":[{"id":1005911,"title":"中国平安","image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/66ce44f4-df4d-45c9-87c1-a484f8d16ba0.png","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/themes/1005911"}],"unshow_content_short":false,"is_in_vip_privilege":true,"vip_type":"platinum"}},{"resource_type":"article","resource_owner":"inhouse","resource":{"id":3492591,"title":"中证报头版:企业紧锣密鼓备战科创板 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| 大师课·刘煜辉问答","slot_title":"","content_short":"刘煜辉大师课问答","content_preview":"

刘煜辉大师课问答

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  1. 您说现在中国处于滞胀阶段,其中最明显的就是大宗商品价格过高。可是根据货币信用模?#20572;?#20013;国是在衰退阶段,利率和信用都不高。这两个判断有冲突。想问问您如何定义通?#20572;?#20026;什么两个判断会有冲突?
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通胀 通缩或者滞胀 都是经济机理,你得同时关注总需求和供给侧。滞胀是一种经济机理。经济下行周期的通?#20572;?#26681;子在供给侧,供给侧受到?#25345;至?#37327;的不断打击而下坠(长期增长动能受损),而货币信用代表的总需求被既?#32654;?#30410;所顶住,从而向下撕裂出越来越大的缺口,形成难以遏制的顽固的通胀预期。

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?

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  1. 老师好,因基础?#35805;悖?#26377;一些知识听不明白,要看些什么书或者学些什么知识才能更好的理解这大师课内容?
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什么都看,经济、政治、社会、东西方历史、金融货币,都倒入一锅煮。

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推荐:《债务与魔鬼》、《国家的兴衰》、《万历十五年》、《枪炮、病菌和钢铁》

","is_priced":true,"is_trial":false,"is_paid":false,"comment_disabled":false,"uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/articles/3445211?layout=wscn-layout","vip_uri":"","comment_count":0,"is_favourite":false,"pageviews":0,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/cbba715d-1218-4e15-a3ef-806c3d0adc76.jpg","use_default_image":false,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","display_time":1543401568,"author":null,"categories":null,"platforms":["wscn-platform"],"related_topics":null,"related_themes":null,"unshow_content_short":false,"is_in_vip_privilege":false,"vip_type":""},"resource_type":"article","theme":{"categories":[{"property_key":"renwuzhuanlan","property_name":"专栏"},{"property_key":"renwuzhuanlanhongguan","property_name":"人物专栏-宏观"}],"content_count":21,"description":"","fixed_follower_count":10000,"follower_count":18700,"id":1005837,"image_uri":"https://dn-wscn-avatar.qbox.me/fe/ba/84/qq-20161028111101.jpg","image_url":"https://dn-wscn-avatar.qbox.me/fe/ba/84/qq-20161028111101.jpg","is_followed":false,"is_priced":false,"is_push":false,"status":"normal","theme_type":"normal","title":"刘煜辉","today_update_count":0,"updated_at":1543401568,"uri":"http://www.3553773.com/themes/1005837","url":"http://www.3553773.com/themes/1005837","wits_kol_id":0,"wits_kol_name":""}},{"resource":{"id":3415716,"title":"【深度复盘2】资产波动与周期轮动的底层逻辑——利率周期与传导的分析框架","slot_title":"","content_short":"从中国利率体系?#21019;?#31867;资产配置,利率周期的轮动对于资产配置是真正把握其背后规律的底层密码!","content_preview":"

《十年利率心法?#39134;?#24230;复盘

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利率:金融市场传导的底层逻辑密码

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金融市场的瞬息万变、资产价格大幅波动,利率就是其底层传导的逻辑链条,是大类资产轮动的核?#37027;?#21160;能力。

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为什么金融市场格外关注央行的货币政策动向?“加息缩表”的分析评论成为2018年不绝于耳的金融讨论话题。为什么美联储的议息会议会牵动全球市场投资者的神经?

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为什么近期美债收益率的迅速上行,带来了全球金融市场的股债双?#20445;?#20840;球资产价格波动率的迅速上行?一时之间,金融市场风险迅速传导,资产价格起伏震荡。

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这背后的底层密码就是利率的变化与传导,国债收益率的变化与传导。

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利率的变化对于现代金融市场是真正牵一发而动全身的金融变量。

\n

利率周期的轮动对于大类资产配置是真正把握其背后规律的底层密码。

\n

\n

《十年利率心法》的逻辑框架

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资产周期轮动的底层逻辑——?#29992;?#26519;时钟到货币信用

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《十年利率心法》可以分为三大部分,六大?#38470;冢陆?#36923;辑上有着完整而严谨的体系设计,层层递进,环环相扣,相信完整学习的你能够体会其中深意。

\n

利率体系是基础,资产配置是实践,利率周期的起伏是驱动大类资产轮动的核?#37027;?#21160;力,?#21069;?#25569;不同周期下投资机遇的密码。

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《十年利率体系》的上半部分着眼于中国利率体系的基础知识,通过详?#20184;?#23436;整的介绍,旨在帮助投资者建立一套利率的综合分析框架

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《十年利率体系》的下半部分则着眼于资产轮动和资产配置,如果说利率体系理论基础,那么资产配置就是投资实践

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如何把握不同周期下的最优投资配置机会,提高资产配置的收益和效率,相信是每一位市场投资人最为关心的核心议题!

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全球经济形势的恶化程度变得愈发难以忽视。上周五刚刚发布的2月美国非农数据“雷爆”市场,不仅远低于预期还创下17个月新低。

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彭博的GDP追踪数据显示,今年全球经济年化?#20928;?#27604;增速?#20808;?#24180;年中的4%水平接近腰斩,放缓至2.1%。这意味着全球经?#32654;?#24352;步伐将放缓至金融危机以来最低。经济学家Dan Hanson和Tom Orlik认为,虽然经济有可能?#19994;街С牛?#38459;止进一步放缓的,但依然有下行势能自我维持的风险。

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近期经济与市场的表现背后都指向一个意?#19969;?#27809;有货币政策的支持,宏观经济难以为继。

\n

但当下一次危机再来临时,央妈们?#40723;?#20160;么拯救市场?

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*本文内容由见闻研究团队原创,投资者可以添加微信号“jwzhujiao3”领取7天会员体验资格,并加入会员投研交流群,和研究团?#21491;黄?#21457;掘全球市场机会*

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波音连续第二日大跌 大宗商品集体上涨","slot_title":"","content_short":"标普涨0.3%,道指跌近百点,纳指涨0.44%。多国禁飞波音737MAX,波音股价收跌6.1%。原油、金属集体上涨,伦锌创七个月新高。英国议会拒绝退欧方案,英镑跌幅从1%收窄至0.5%。","content_preview":"","is_priced":false,"is_trial":false,"is_paid":false,"comment_disabled":false,"uri":"http://www.3553773.com/articles/3492589","vip_uri":"","comment_count":0,"is_favourite":false,"pageviews":0,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/1d9a0071-1e19-43c6-9ff7-e8c0b5baf951.jpg","use_default_image":false,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","display_time":1552420979,"author":{"id":100000330115,"display_name":"王超","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/26035120-29ff-46c4-8aef-63004a576c9e","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/100000330115"},"categories":null,"platforms":["wscn-platform"],"related_topics":null,"related_themes":[{"id":1006382,"title":"隔夜全球市场动态汇总","image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/f1a336e7-4fd2-49cf-8d53-99c4783242a8.jpg","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/themes/1006382"},{"id":1005707,"title":"美股动态与策略","image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/1fe26c97-5e97-4907-ab1c-ef217159469c.jpg","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/themes/1005707"}],"unshow_content_short":false,"is_in_vip_privilege":false,"vip_type":""}},{"resource_type":"article","resource_owner":"inhouse","resource":{"id":3492588,"title":"媒体:欧盟计划平衡中欧贸易 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上调今年油价预期","slot_title":"","content_short":"美国能源信息署(EIA)的月度报告,下调了美国今明两年的原油产量预期,也下调了今明两年全球原油需求增速,但上调2019年的油价预期。今明两年,美国原油和石油产品净进口预计?#20013;?#19979;降,到2020年,美国原油和石油产品将转为净出口10万桶/日。","content_preview":"","is_priced":false,"is_trial":false,"is_paid":false,"comment_disabled":false,"uri":"http://www.3553773.com/articles/3492585","vip_uri":"","comment_count":0,"is_favourite":false,"pageviews":0,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/c3c9e938-9d59-491a-8115-b223158be29b.png","use_default_image":false,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","display_time":1552418533,"author":{"id":120000002009,"display_name":"?#38590;?,"image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/98939c01-f4ee-4903-96cf-54e528e32a5a","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/120000002009"},"categories":null,"platforms":["wscn-platform"],"related_topics":null,"related_themes":[{"id":1005152,"title":"原油","image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/794479c3-c41e-4c21-91ff-ccfe2fc473c9.jpg","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/themes/1005152"}],"unshow_content_short":false,"is_in_vip_privilege":false,"vip_type":""}},{"resource_type":"ad","resource":{"id":8681,"name":"3.11-3.14大师课banner9","is_hidden_in_review":false,"position":9,"kind":"banner"}},{"resource_type":"article","resource_owner":"inhouse","resource":{"id":3492524,"title":"平安内含价值首破万亿,超预期、增分红、还回?#28023;?#35841;不爱? | 年报点评","slot_title":"","content_short":"派息比率提升的同时,还祭出了一份金额介于50-100亿元的回购计划,将“优秀”进行?#38477;住?,"content_preview":"

2019年3月12日盘后,中国平安公布2018年报。

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年报要点如下:

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2018年集团实现归属公司股东净利润1074亿元,同比增长20.6%,略超市场一?#30053;?#26399;的1061亿元;第四季度的归母净利润达到280亿元,同比增长23%,增速高于前三季度。

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2018年末集团内含价值为10025亿元,同比增长21.5%,增速高于1H18的12.4%,是集团史上首次?#40644;?#19975;亿大观。

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寿险及健康险业务的新业务价值达到723亿元,同比增长7.3%,其中2H18增速?#30740;?#22797;至16.9%;新业务价值率同比提升4.4个百分点,好于市场预期。

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产险原保费为2474亿,同比增长15%,综合成本率为96%,同比下降0.2PCT。

\n

平安银行业绩稳步增长,零售业务继续高歌猛进,净息差保?#25351;纳?#36235;势。

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金融科技与医疗科技业务实现运营利润77.5亿元,同比实现翻?#19969;?/p>\n

总投资收益率大幅下滑2.3个百分点至3.7%,主要受会?#21697;?#31867;和市场环境的叠加影响。

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公司宣派2018年末期股息每股1.10元,加之每股0.62元的中期股息及每股0.20元的30周年特别股息,全年股息达到每股1.92元,超出了2017年每股1.50元的派息水平。

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公司宣布将首次实施回购股份的方案,回购资金总额介于50-100亿元。

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以下为详细分析:

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保险板块业绩贡献度进一步提升:

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从归属公司股东的净利润的占比来看,保险板块的贡献度进一步提升,2018年保险业务实现归母净利润701.3亿元,同比增长43.2%,带动业绩占比提升10.3个百分点至65.3%。

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银行板块的业绩表现依然稳健,全年实现归母净利润为144亿元,同比增长7%,业绩占比提升至13.4%。

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资管板块方面,信?#23567;?#35777;券、其他资产管理分别贡献业绩30.1、16.0、82.6亿元,?#20808;?#24180;同期均有不同程度倒退,三者合计贡献归母净利润128.7亿元,板块整体业绩占比12%。

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2018年金融科技板块的归母净利润倒退4.2%至140亿元,主要原因是2018年较2017年录得更少的一次性损益。

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?

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巨大的流量池和综合金融服务能力是中国平安不可比拟的竞争优势:

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2018年,中国平安个人客户数(去重)达到1.84亿人,同比增长11%,增速较往年有所回落。公司披露,个人业务营运利润达到977.3亿元,同比增长31.1%,?#25216;?#22242;归母营运利润的比例提高8.1个百分点至86.8%。

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?

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公司的综合金融战略实施成效明显,客户在集团各产品线之间交叉渗透,客户人均持有合同数继续稳步增长,2018年末已达到2.53个,持有多?#26131;?#20844;司合同的客户数比例上升6.1个百分点至34.6%。

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截止至2018年末,公司全口径的互联网用户量达到5.38亿人,同比增长23.4%。见智认为,巨大的流量池和综合金融服务能力是中国平安不可比拟的竞争优势。

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新业务价值增速回弹,寿险与健康险板块19年盈利增长确定性强:

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2018年,中国平安的寿险与健康险业务实现归母净利润579亿元,同比大幅增长62.4%,其中下半年业绩增长接近翻倍,超出市场预期。

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2018全年平安寿险及健康险板块新业务价值为722.9亿元,同比增长7.3%,增速较往年大幅回落。但从趋势上来看,2018上半年新业务价值增速仅为0.2%,但下半年已迅速修复至16.9%。

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新业务价值=首年保费*新业务价值率。过去几年,寿险及健康险行业?#27604;?#30340;核?#37027;?#21160;因素为在保险代理人规模的?#35813;?#25193;大,带动驱动首年保费?#20013;?#24555;速增长。2018年,行业进入调整期,保险代理人规模切换至缓速增长模式,平安寿险及健康险业务2018年月均代理人规模仅增长4.8%,而期末代理人规模为141.7万人,较年初仅增长2.3%。受此影响,2018年平安寿险及健康险业务的首年保费仅为1654.4亿元,同比倒退3.6%(中报倒退10%)。

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得益于平?#24067;?#26102;调整策略,积极通过调整产品结构优化新业务质量,2018年新业务价值率大幅提升4.4个百分点,高于2017年1.9个百分点的提升幅度。其中,代理人渠道新业务价值率达到57.1%,同比提升7.2个百分点。

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截止至2018年末,平安寿险及健康险业务剩余边?#35270;?#39069;为7866亿元,较2017年末同比增长27.6%。2018年,剩余边际摊销为623亿元,同比增长25%,?#21069;?#22359;会计利润的核心来源,约占寿险及健康险业务税前营运利润的2/3。考虑到平安的剩余边?#35270;?#39069;?#20013;?#22686;长,2019年寿险及健康险业务的盈利增长确定性依然较强。

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会计准则变更叠加?#26102;?#24066;场动荡,保险业务总投资收益率下滑至3.7%

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2018年,中国平安保险业务的总投资收益率下降至近年的低点3.7%,低于中报和三季报的4.0%。

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一方面,国内、国内?#26102;?#24066;场波动加大,导致公司投资收益率大幅下滑,另一方面中国平安于2018年起实施新会计准则,在新会计准则下公司保险子公司被分类为“以公允价值计量且变动计入损益的金融资产”数额大幅增加,客观上加大了收益率的波动幅度。

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零售业务高歌猛进,净息差有望?#20013;纳疲?/strong>

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平安银行2018年实现归母净利润248.2亿元,同比增长7.0%,增速较前三季度提升0.2个百分点。全年扣非净资产收益率(ROE)为11.44%,较2017年轻微下降0.17个百分点。

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平安银行的零售转型成效再次得到验证。2018年,零售业务的营业收入和净利润占比分别达到53%、69%,同比分别提升8.9%、1.4%。

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从个人贷款占贷款总额的比例来看,2018年末已经达到57.8%,对比2016年末仅为36.7%。值得注意的是,2018年平安银行信用卡用户数量增长34.8%,增速是中国平安各业务条线中最高的。

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在NIM方面,平安银行全年的净息差为2.35%,同比2017年减少0.02个百分点。但从趋势上而言,1Q18的2.25%即为全年低点,此后的三个季度净息差环比?#20013;?#25552;升,我们预估4Q18净息差已达到2.5%左右。展望未来,我们认为在市场资金趋于宽松、平安零售转型?#20013;?#25512;进的大背景下,净息差仍有?#32435;?#31354;间。

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而在资产质量方面,主要受到企业贷款不良加强确认的影响,2018年末平安银行不良贷款率相比去年同期提升0.05个百分点至1.75%,相比3Q18则环比提升0.07个百分点。另一方面,逾期90天以上贷款率大幅下降0.68个百分点至1.70%,不良偏离度指标降至近年以来的低位97%。整体而言,平安银行的资产质量仍稳中向好,且未来的不良确认压力将?#29616;?#21069;明显降低。?#36865;猓?#25320;备覆盖率达到155.2%,同比增加4.2个百分点,风险抵补能力有所增强,但?#28304;?#25552;升空间。

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资产管理业务表现逊于预期,但“牛市情?#22330;?#19979;2019年或有较大向上弹性:

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2018年,中国平安的资产管理业务表现逊于预期,信?#23567;?#35777;券及其他资管业务总计实现归母净利润128.7亿元,同比大幅减少19.2%。

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具体而言,平安信托2018年归母净利润倒退23.9%,主要原因是信托资产管理规模的下降以及投资收益的下降?#40644;?#23433;证券2018年归母净利润倒退21.7%,主要受到了市况的拖累,经营表现仍优于行业?#40644;?#20182;资管业务的业绩主要包括平安资产管理、平安融?#39318;?#36161;、平安海外控股等经营成果,2H18此块业务的归母净利润同比倒退73.1%,我们判断业绩的波动可能与平安的海外业务有关。

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总的来看,2018年资产管理业务逊于预期与大市密切相关,但若“牛?#23567;崩?#20020;,此块业务也应具备不错的向上业绩弹性。

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金融科技与医疗科技业务实现运营利润翻倍:

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中国平安的金融科技与医疗科技业务主要透过陆金所控股、平安好医生、金融一?#36865;ā?#24179;安医保科技、汽车之?#19994;?#32463;营实体。

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2018年,金融科技与医疗科技业务的归母净利润同比减少4%至140亿元,这主要是因为2017年子公司平安好医生录得重组交易净利润108.5亿元,而2018年类似的非经常性损益仅有72.4亿元。

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实际上,2018年中国平安金融科技与医疗科技业务表现可圈可点,全年运营利润同比翻倍至77.5亿元,而归母运营利润则同比增长79.5%至67.7亿元。

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?

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市场较为关注的陆金所控股亦披?#35835;?#37096;分经营数据,2018年活跃投资用户数为1117万,同比增长16.2%,资产管理规模受制于金融去杠杠同比下降20%至3694亿元,管理贷款余额同比增长30%至3750亿元,30天以上逾期率为2.3%。

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?#36865;猓?#20540;得一提的是平安金融与医疗科技板块的多家?#23736;?#35282;兽”于2018年陆续完成新一轮投资,其中陆金所控股投后估值达到394亿美元。

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内含价值首破万亿大观:

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2018年末,中国内含价值为10024.6亿元,同比增长21.5%,增速较2018上半年的12.4%明显提升,是公司历史上首次?#40644;?#19975;亿,绝对规模领跑行业。

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分结构来看,寿险及健康险业务的内涵价值为6132.2亿元,同比增长23.5%,高于集团EV增速,比重已进一步升至61.2%。

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而从增长归因来看,内含价值预期回报和新业务价值创造仍是相对稳定的增长推动力,而营?#20284;?#24046;和市场价值调整是集团内含价?#24503;?#36229;预期的主要原因。

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结语:

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中国平安交出了一份略超市场预期的经营答卷,多项经营指标均创历史新高。而在全年派息比率提升的同时,还祭出了一份金额介于50-100亿元的回购计划,将“优秀”进行?#38477;住?/p>","is_priced":true,"is_trial":false,"is_paid":false,"comment_disabled":false,"uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/articles/3492524?layout=wscn-layout","vip_uri":"http://www.3553773.com/vip/articles/3492524","comment_count":0,"is_favourite":false,"pageviews":0,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/45178d2e-93f0-4971-8157-92b0a2f203a5.jpg","use_default_image":false,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","display_time":1552417804,"author":{"id":120000002536,"display_name":"见智君","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/bfd377bf-f6c4-4785-a0ee-76e50626c13d","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/120000002536"},"categories":null,"platforms":["wscn-platform"],"related_topics":[{"id":1002092,"title":"见智投研圈","image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/1d34fd75-cd38-469b-8f61-97cfbe7cdadb.jpg","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/premium/topics/1002092"}],"related_themes":[{"id":1005911,"title":"中国平安","image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/66ce44f4-df4d-45c9-87c1-a484f8d16ba0.png","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/themes/1005911"}],"unshow_content_short":false,"is_in_vip_privilege":true,"vip_type":"platinum"}},{"resource_type":"article","resource_owner":"inhouse","resource":{"id":3492586,"title":"官媒头版评论?#33322;?#26500;美股十年牛市基因,治A股“蛮牛?#20445;?#21161;慢牛长牛","slot_title":"","content_short":"天下没有不散的宴席,美股的牛市再长?#19981;?#26377;结束的那一天。不过,这些长牛的“基因?#24065;?#33021;给A股带来一些启示,A股市场也有望甩掉以往“大起大落”的标签,力争实现稳健的慢牛、长牛而不是“蛮牛”。","content_preview":"","is_priced":false,"is_trial":false,"is_paid":false,"comment_disabled":false,"uri":"http://www.3553773.com/articles/3492586","vip_uri":"","comment_count":0,"is_favourite":false,"pageviews":0,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/bcf35a7f-99d2-49ef-b85a-3ec47a6b8f1a.jpg","use_default_image":false,"source_name":"证券时报","source_uri":"","display_time":1552417066,"author":{"id":120000000347,"display_name":"杜玉","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/2651409d-2179-4ff2-a299-ec8affb49e84","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/authors/120000000347"},"categories":null,"platforms":["wscn-platform"],"related_topics":null,"related_themes":[{"id":1005241,"title":"官媒有话说","image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/333beb81-ba60-4eac-a923-999c893ec638.jpg","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/themes/1005241"},{"id":1005290,"title":"A股市场动态","image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/42954813-b99e-4f03-9ac7-5b1777bba244.png","uri":"http://www.3553773.com/themes/1005290"}],"unshow_content_short":false,"is_in_vip_privilege":false,"vip_type":""}},{"resource_type":"article","resource_owner":"inhouse","resource":{"id":3492584,"title":"俄媒:沙特提议延长OPEC+减产到年底 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脱水研报栏目,周日晚间挖掘的5G白马华正新材周一周二两连板,周一晚间挖掘的5G智慧?#32856;?strong>华体科技盘中涨停。?#36865;猓?#27867;在电力互联网、游戏完美世界、锂电设备璞泰来等都有惊艳表现。

\n

今日再度分享一只底部5G滞涨黑马,预期差极大(详见文内~)

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中国福利彩票东方6加1开奖结果查询

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